What are the first things that come into your mind when you hear the word “China?” It might be the red flag and the yellow stars, Mao Ze-Dong, and even Yao Ming. However, as an expatriate in China, the first things that comes into my mind are rising wages, sagging property prices, inflation: all of China's indicators point to a slowdown of its powerhouse economy in 2015.
China’s economy had grown rapidly for decades, but China slumped back into single digits in 2012. With the latest GDP figures showing growth of just 7.3%, which is significantly lower than average 11% in the previous years, the September quarter of 2014 was one of the slowest since the crisis. What’s more dismal is that analysts predict China may fail to hit its targets for the first time.
This might be a hindrance for China to get over with, but for China's regional neighbors in Cambodia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Laos and beyond, Chinese slumps in economy are definitely pieces of good news. In these countries, the rising cost of the Chinese workforce force many manufacturers to seek cheaper labor offshore, but China's slackening demand for some natural resources has been a boon for the rest of South East Asia. For countries in South East Asia that heavily subsidize energy to fuel their economies, the China slowdown is a welcome respite, as it gives their products more competitiveness and opportunities.
Thankfully, not all things are gloomy. While exporting economies in the region may take a hit in the short-term, he said the long-term picture is encouraging. China's planned economy, too, also means that Beijing looks at its economic prospects in terms of decades rather than financial quarters. The country's leaders have a long-term viewpoint and see strategic benefits in opening new markets and expanding prosperity in countries within its sphere of influence. If this comes true, it will just again, demonstrate the capability of the Chinese government to plan for unanticipated events and control crisis.
Many analysts predicted that, however, China's economy is still on an upward trajectory despite concerns over credit bubbles, property slumps and general slowdowns. They predict that it is imperative for investors to now segment their markets to ensure that they are marketing things right.
Analysts also claim much of China’s fate will hinge on whether the government of Xi Jinping can institute bold and scheduled reforms to its highly regulated domestic capital markets and to interest rates. In the meantime, however, the landscape for the other emerging economies in the region has never been better. Frontier markets have lower income and labor costs, so Asian countries like Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, will benefit and will have a dramatic impact in those societies or economies.
The pendulum that has previously swung favor of other Southeast Asian countries such as Singapore and Taiwan decades ago, is now swinging in favor of other emerging markets in the Asia regions as they gain market share from China.
Let me end with a Chinese quote: If you're a bit more sophisticated in your approach, you can make good money in China.